• What do trailing returns imply about future returns
• How often do different portfolio designs achieve an 8% historical return
• How do withdrawals affect drawdown risk during retirement

• Rate cut cycles have been positive 75% of the time over the following 12, 24 or 36 months
• Higher risk styles have historically outperformed lower risk approaches in the year following cuts
• 1966 is the closest analog to today

• Magnitude and Duration of Bear Markets dramatically different based on presence of recession or not
• Monetary policy tightening and yield curve inversion is a consistent trend for most bear markets
• Recovery after recessionary driven or sentiment driven bear markets is drastically different

• 50 year highs – Market is at 50 year high levels of concentration and extreme valuations of the top 10 names
• Drawdown risk – The biggest stocks historically to drawdown much worse than a diversified portfolio following these periods
• Lost Decades – A diversified portfolio have avoided the lost decades associated with a cap weighted approach